Forecast

California 2026 Weather Update

• Based on early 2026 climate outlooks, California is poised for a hotter-than-average summer in 2026, with a 40% to 50% chance of above-normal temperatures in the southern two-thirds of the state, and a 33% to 40% chance in the north. This follows a trend of unseasonably warm weather early in the year, with 2026 projected to be among the top four hottest years on record globally.
• El Niño is expected to become very strong from November 2026 through January 2027, and the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center says it has developed. The pattern is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, and it can bring a wetter winter to California. Experts say a stronger El Niño raises the chance of above-average precipitation, but California's recent drying trend complicates that signal. In the past, strong El Niño years have brought very rainy winters, while the 2015-2016 "Godzilla" event did not deliver the expected precipitation in Southern California.
• Old Farmer’s Almanac for California 2026
  -The majority of California residents can expect cooler-than-normal temperatures this fall, according to a new seasonal forecast from The Old Farmer’s Almanac.
  -The fall forecast calls for a cool and wet fall season for Northern California and much of Central California. The majority of Southern California, meanwhile, can expect a cool and dry fall season, according to the Almanac.
  -The Pacific Northwest and Northern California will be wetter than average, according to the Almanac, which predicts three more inches of rain than usual in September.
  -The Pacific Southwest should have near-normal temperatures in September before a slightly cooler October, according to the Almanac. Northern areas here are expected to experience a slight increase in rainfall, according to the Almanac.
  -A southeast portion of California, closer to Arizona, will differ, with the Almanac predicting a warm and drier-than-average fall season in that region.